Bitcoin’s price has struggled to regain strength since late October, with multiple failed recovery attempts extending its decline.
The leading cryptocurrency has been oscillating near critical support levels as on-chain indicators reveal emerging signs of weakness. Rising volatility and a lack of directional conviction continue to define market behavior.
Bitcoin May Face Resistance
The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder (STH/LTH) Supply Ratio recently rose to 18.3%, exceeding the upper band of 17.9%. This signals elevated speculative activity as short-term traders dominate market movements. Increased turnover without sustained price direction has led to heightened volatility in Bitcoin’s trading environment.
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The surge in this ratio also suggests that traders are quickly shifting between profit-taking and accumulation phases. As a result, market churn has intensified, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to sharp but short-lived price swings.
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Bitcoin STH/LTH Supply Ratio. Source: Glassnode
According to the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model, Bitcoin has rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis near $100,000 and is consolidating around $106,200. This area reflects a critical psychological and technical zone for traders, marking a temporary stabilization following weeks of selling pressure.
The next resistance lies at the 85th percentile cost basis of $108,500, which has historically capped recovery attempts during similar phases. The model’s data suggests Bitcoin’s upside may remain limited in the short term.
Bitcoin Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. Source: Glassnode
BTC Price Breakout Awaited
Bitcoin’s price is currently at $103,922, struggling to overcome the downtrend that has been active for nearly two and a half weeks. The cryptocurrency has failed twice to breach this resistance, reinforcing the strength of bearish market sentiment.
At present, Bitcoin trades below $105,000 but remains above the $101,477 support zone. This area is likely to form a consolidation base amid persistent volatility and cautious investor behavior.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
If bullish momentum strengthens, Bitcoin could break past $105,000 and challenge resistance near $108,000. Successfully flipping this level would mark the first significant recovery since October, signaling renewed optimism across the broader crypto market.
